July 2026 Climate Brief: India’s Carbon Market Nears First Trades, CORSIA Slips Below $10, SBTi V2 Sinks In

India: compliance year one, trading close behind

India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme has moved decisively from policy to practice. Compliance obligations are now in force for roughly 490 entities across seven energy-intensive sectors — aluminium, cement, chlor-alkali and pulp & paper were notified in October 2025, with petroleum refining, petrochemicals and textiles following in January 2026. By March 2026, greenhouse gas emission intensity (GEI) targets had been notified for nine sectors, adding iron & steel and fertiliser — together about 16% of India’s total emissions.

First-year targets ask for a 1–3% intensity reduction, but FY2026–27 ratchets to roughly 2–8% depending on the sector — pulp & paper faces up to 15% over two years. The first trading of Carbon Credit Certificates (CCCs) is expected around mid-2026, which means price discovery is about to begin: entities short of target will face a real market cost, and overachievers will hold a sellable asset. New to the scheme? Start with our plain-language CCTS guide.

Global voluntary market: strong retirements, weak removals

Retirements across the voluntary carbon market were strong through the first five months of 2026, and volumes are no longer concentrated at the cheapest price points — buyers are paying up for quality. Yet carbon removal purchases fell roughly 50% over the same period, even as the Frontier buyers’ club launched a new advance market commitment of over $900 million.

CORSIA-eligible futures slipped to just above $9 per tonne, even with the mandatory phase approaching in 2027 — while high-integrity nature-based removals continue to command roughly $15–35 and engineered removals $150–500+. The market is bifurcating on integrity, not converging on one price. If you are budgeting credits for H2, our H2 2026 market outlook and the nature-based vs avoidance guide cover how to think in quality tiers.

Frameworks: SBTi V2 sinks in

Three weeks after the SBTi published its Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 on 11 June, sustainability teams are working through company categorisation, the revised Scope 3 approach and the carbon removals timeline. Our full breakdown for Indian companies includes a preparation checklist aligned with BRSR, CBAM and CCTS.

Seasonal: the planting window is open

Van Mahotsav week marks the start of India’s monsoon plantation season — the July–September window in which sapling survival rates are highest. If a plantation is in your CSR or biodiversity plans this year, the planning has to happen this month; our monsoon 2026 corporate plantation guide lays out the 90-day plan.

Your July action list

• Obligated under CCTS? Close FY2025–26 data gaps and prepare for CCC trading readiness before the market opens.

• Buying credits in H2? Fix quality criteria now — our 27-question carbon credit RFP template is a starting point — before CORSIA-driven demand firms up prices.

• Filing BRSR this AGM season? Reconcile GHG numbers across BRSR, CDP and SBTi submissions so one dataset feeds all three.

• Planting this monsoon? Site selection and species procurement in July, planting after stable rains in August.

For help with any of the above — credits, reporting or forests — talk to the Csquare team.