Voluntary Carbon Market H2 2026 Outlook: Prices, Supply, and What Buyers Should Do Now

If you bought carbon credits in 2024, the market you are looking at now is unrecognisable. Average voluntary prices are up, but only in the top quartile. Legacy avoidance credits are down. The integrity bar has moved twice. Half the buyers who paused procurement in 2023 are back. Here is what we expect for the second half of 2026 and what we are telling our corporate clients to do about it.

1. Prices: continued bifurcation, with the gap widening

The top quartile of supply (ICVCM CCP-labelled credits, post-2024 vintage, with verified co-benefits) has firmed up further. Average transacted prices in this segment are now solidly in the 25 to 80 dollars per tonne range for nature-based and 130 to 220 for biochar. The bottom quartile (pre-2020 vintage, unlabelled avoidance) continues to discount. Expect the spread to widen, not narrow, through H2.

We covered the underlying pricing forces in our carbon credit pricing guide. Those mechanics are intensifying, not stabilising.

2. Supply: Article 6.4 starts to land

The first Article 6.4 issuances are expected before the end of 2026. Initial volumes will be modest, likely 5 to 15 million A6.4ERs in the first wave, but the signalling effect on the rest of the voluntary market will be larger than the volume suggests. Authorised credits with corresponding adjustments will command a structural premium.

3. Compliance market pull continues to lift voluntary prices

EU CBAM definitive regime opened 2026 at 75.36 euros per tonne for Q1. That price floor pulls voluntary market prices upward in CBAM-covered sectors (steel, aluminium, cement, fertiliser) because compliance and voluntary buyers are now competing for similar removal-grade supply. We expect H2 CBAM certificate prices in the 78 to 90 euro range.

4. India CCTS: from policy to live pricing

Indias Carbon Credit Trading Scheme is moving from policy into compliance, with first CCC issuances expected in Q4 2026 and trading on power exchanges launching in mid-to-late 2026. Indian voluntary pricing has been firming up in anticipation, and we expect the CCC reference price to set a soft floor for domestic voluntary supply once it is live.

5. Integrity labels: from differentiator to default

ICVCM CCP labels are no longer a premium feature. For any procurement decision involving an SBTi-aligned company, they are now table stakes. The next differentiator is CCP-Plus, expected late 2026, which adds biodiversity and community outcome scoring. Buyers building portfolios this half should require CCP as a baseline and treat CCP-Plus capacity as the upside option.

What corporate buyers should do this quarter

1. Refresh your procurement policy. Require post-2023 vintage and CCP-aligned methodology as a minimum. Anything older should be a documented exception, not a default.

2. Build a 60-30-10 portfolio: 60 percent nature-based removals (afforestation, Miyawaki, mangroves), 30 percent engineered removals (biochar, enhanced rock weathering, BECCS), 10 percent high-quality avoidance with unimpeachable additionality.

3. Layer forward offtakes. Spot-only procurement at 2026 prices is the most expensive way to buy. Multi-year offtakes lock in supply at predictable economics.

4. Get your contracts Article 6.4-ready. Even if you are not buying A6.4ERs yet, language around corresponding adjustments, authorisation status, and double-counting representations belongs in every credit purchase agreement now.

5. If you export to the EU, treat your CBAM exposure as a procurement input, not a separate workstream. CBAM-adjacent emissions reductions are where your offset budget gets the highest strategic return.

What to watch in the next 90 days

• Article 6.4 Supervisory Body decisions on methodology approvals.

• India CCTS registry openings and the first MRV submissions.

• Q3 2026 CBAM certificate price publication.

• ICVCM CCP-Plus label criteria announcement.

• SBTi v2.0 final framework, which affects offset eligibility for target-setting companies.

The companies that look smart in 2027 will be the ones who treated H2 2026 as the planning window, not the deal-closing window.

Where Csquare fits

We help Indian corporates source, screen, and structure carbon credit portfolios that combine integrity with cost discipline. If you would like a procurement strategy review tailored to your sector and exposure profile, get in touch.